Ted Cruz wins Iowa Caucus

Discussion in 'Apex Lounge' started by cardine, Feb 1, 2016.

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  1. cardine

    cardine Administrator Staff Member

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    News organizations are now calling Ted Cruz the Republican winner for the Iowa caucuses. Rubio is also having a very impressive showing and Trump was very disappointing, especially considering he was projected to win.

    It'll be interesting to see how New Hampshire and South Carolina goes and who the eventual Republican nominee will be. After tonight's results my money is on Marco Rubio.

    Out of all the realistic candidates left (which unfortunately excludes Rand Paul) my preference for the Republican nominee is Marco Rubio. I was getting really scared for a little bit that we'd have a Trump vs Sanders general election.
     
  2. KS1905

    KS1905 Active Member

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    The Republicans could end up with a brokered convention if there is no clear National winner and that would be a real mess.

    I think it is disgusting how Republican leaning States have enacted Voting ID Laws which are only designed to prevent minorities/Democratic voters from voting; 21st Century Jim Crow Laws.
     
  3. KS1905

    KS1905 Active Member

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    Cruz and Trump aren't very viable National Candidates, I doubt they can win a swing state (Ohio, Penn, FL), too many negatives with their policies. Rubio has some financial campaign baggage issues, who knows what type of skeletons are in his closet and his Senate attendance record sucks. Let's see how he looks with the spotlight on him after his good showing in Iowa.

    Christie is a fat bully and since he took over NJ their finances have gotten even worse with a bunch of credit downgrades, something like the 2nd most downgrades of all the States besides Illinois.

    Bush had all that money and was the presumptive favorite but fell flat on his face.

    I like Kasich, he has done a lot of good things in Ohio since the Recession. His state was one of the hardest hit and had one of the biggest turnarounds. He doesn't have the extreme Social Views like Cruz so he might be able to grab some independent and democratic votes, as well as win the biggest swing state of them all (Ohio). He doesn't have much of personality and that's why I think his campaign hasn't caught on like Trump, Cruz and Rubio.

    It would be really interesting if Bloomberg jumped in the race as an Independent. He would definitely get some votes from both sides, I can't figure out who he would hurt the most if he got in.
     
  4. cardine

    cardine Administrator Staff Member

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    I really liked Kasich as well, but I think he portrayed himself as a little too liberal for the primaries, and despite the fact that he looked really good on paper he didn't do a good job really exciting anybody.

    If it was Trump/Cruz vs Sanders I was really hoping for a Bloomberg independent run, and that's coming from someone who really dislikes Bloomberg's I know what's best for you policies.

    I'm not too worried about things like Senate attendance record, and in my opinion any baggage he might have pales in comparison to Hillary Clinton's never ending email scandal.

    But really the only type of "different" I'd be looking for right now in American politics is libertarianism, but that's out the window for this election so right now I just want to make sure that nothing crazy happens, and a Rubio vs Clinton election just about guarantees that.
     
  5. KS1905

    KS1905 Active Member

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    Polling shows that democrats don't really care about the email scandal, so it's mostly a Republican/Independent issue and I can't imagine most independent voters voting for Cruz or Trump. And after the recent Benghazi issues they're going to need proof beyond a reasonable doubt, otherwise Clinton is just going to say that it is another Republican Witch Hunt like Monica, White Water, Paula Jones, Troopergate, Vince Foster, and the list goes on and on.

    Over the years I have grown to like the smoking bans that Bloomberg started in NYC and have seemed to be adopted elsewhere in the Country. If I go places now that allow smoking indoors like Vegas I find it gross and I want to leave. When they first started the bans I thought it was an overreach but now I have come to see the benefits of the ban.

    I like Paul too but he's a little too crazy to ever be elected as President, the same goes for Sanders, Cruz, and Trump. I think if either Rubio or Clinton have the chance they would sell their souls to become President.

    My real concern is that there might be 2-3 Supreme Court Judges appointed under the next president. I don't want another Thomas or Scalia being appointed, their views on social issues are too extreme for me and I don't want the new President to owe/promise some evangelist groups another Thomas or Scalia as a Judge.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2016
  6. cardine

    cardine Administrator Staff Member

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    My guess is that any "scandal" that Rubio has will be no worse than this but for the reverse - only Democrats will care about it. Although if Independents do care about the email scandal that might hurt in the general election.

    Since I don't smoke I don't mind the lack of smoking, but if everyone didn't like the smoking, then bars would become non smoking anyways. But it is more things like "no large sodas" that Bloomberg proposes - which I agree are good policies for making everyone healthier, but are also alarmingly nanny goverment-esque.

    Rand Paul I think is sane enough to be president (he is just moderate enough to not be crazy), although he definitely isn't going to this year, and will need to take advantage of a perfect storm to make his big issues all happen to be the same ones that voters really care about.
     
  7. KS1905

    KS1905 Active Member

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    Last night with your former governor O'malley dropping out of the democratic race it probably gives Clinton a boost of a couple of points in the democratic primaries. I can't stand the guy.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2016
  8. KS1905

    KS1905 Active Member

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    Being someone who went out plenty of times in NYC at that time when the smoking ban went into effect, all the bars were smoking in NYC, there were really no no-smoking bars. When the ban went into effect many people would go into NJ to the bars because they still allowed smoking. After a while people adjusted and prefered to drink in bars where there was no smoking and didn't want to go to the NJ bars anymore due to the smoke. Later on NJ banned smoking too.
     
  9. Simon

    Simon Member

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    I don't like any of the politicians who are bought. They're all bought by various special interests. Ted Cruz's biggest donors are from energy companies so he'll naturally serve them. Clinton gets her donations from big pharma, financial companies and so forth. Only candidates I like so far are Sanders and to a lesser extent Trump (despite him being batshit crazy I like the fact that he isn't bought). Both of these candidates aren't bribed to do the bidding of lobbyists. However, it's important to note that Trump tried to receive money from billionaires such as the Koch Brothers but was rejected. And, he's basically one of those groups that bribe the politicians anyway. But I'll take him over any other bribed politician any day.

    Ted Cruz winning the caucuses really doesn't mean anything. Candidates like Rick Sanctorum and Scott Walker have won the Iowa caucses in the past and they've lost badly. All it means is that Cruz has some momentum going in his favor.
     
  10. cardine

    cardine Administrator Staff Member

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    I agree with that sentiment, although I am still so diametrically opposed to all of Bernie Sanders' policies that I can't get anywhere near supporting him. (Same thing with Donald Trump).

    All I want is someone who is socially liberal who will lower military spending and taxes and will increase the H-1B visa cap. Trump and Sanders are basically the opposite of that so I would take an establishment candidate over either of them, although unfortunately there is no real candidate who comes close to fitting those four pretty basic criteria.

    And yeah I don't think that Cruz has any real path to win the nomination.
     
  11. Simon

    Simon Member

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    Yeah, it seems that you are in a tough spot with your criteria.

    My criteria is someone that can do campaign finance reform. Get the money out of our elections. Sanders seems like the only guy who can do it. There's an effort to pass a new amendment to get money out of politics called wolf pac. They need 3/4ths states to call for a convention to pass a new amendment. I believe 4 states have called for a convention. And, I agree with Sanders on single payer healthcare. I think he'll be much more sensible with regards to our foreign policy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_PAC

    But it doesn't matter if I disagreed with him on policy on any other issue. Campaign finance reform is priority number one for me. He seems like the guy that can do that among all the other candidiates. Trump isn't doing anything about it because he's the one that abuses the system.

    Let's take your criteria for example. Let's say candidate X wants to run for president. He shares your views and hypothetically most people share those views. If he isn't rich he'll need piles of money for fundraising. TV ads, newspaper ads, social media (fb ads, google ads), costs to pay staff, and so forth. And, he's going to get that money from special interest groups. Isn't it ironic to see that Hillary switched her position of supporting single payer to not supporting it after receiving substantial contributions from the insurance industry?

    Candidate X gets money from defense contractors, churches, and unions. These three groups are against the criteria that you are looking for. So, the candidate might say that he wants to cut taxes, cut military spending, and is socially liberal but is he really going to take action? Especially, if you look at the donations that he receives. Is he going to serve his donors or you?

    Our model presidential candidate might share your views but his incentives aren't with the American people or for you. His incentives is to serve his donors who gave him the pile of money to fund his elections. If he doesn't comply with his donors then he's going to face gridlock among the other branches of government. You had the former Speaker of the House consulting the Koch Brothers to stop the previous government shutdown. He's going to get elected out of his ass and boom he has no connections whatsoever because he went against the establishment.

    His incentives aren't for your best interests. There's a reason why the revolving door is so prevalent. You have people within the SEC getting bribed by financial companies to not regulating them as much and once they're out of the regulatory job - they get a nice cushy job at a financial services firm.

    In fact, there's an interesting study that measured policy decisions over the last decade. It found that the American public had little to no say on public. But you have the elites having significant sway over policy. https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites...testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf

    It doesn't matter what your opinion is about this country. If the current system continues to prevail, your voice won't be heard whatsoever.

    Which is why Sanders is getting my vote. He'll bring some more light on our corrupt system. It doesn't matter what we debate on in terms of policy. I'm confident that he'll actually enact policy and bring awareness to the issue because he refuses to take money from special interests. We have no sway over government anyway. Let's first bring back our voice then we can talk about the things that we care about.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2016
  12. KS1905

    KS1905 Active Member

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    Rand Paul just dropped out of the race, I wonder where his supporters will go or maybe they won't vote at all because there isn't another candidate like Paul.
     
  13. cardine

    cardine Administrator Staff Member

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    In that case I would support the candidate who is being funded by the groups that match my interests the closest. In my case it is likely someone who is influenced heavily by the EFF, the Chamber of Commerce, the Heritage Foundation, the ACLU, or the pro immigration tech coalition. Meanwhile Bernie Sanders is heavily funded by labor unions, and will have their best interests at heart.

    Even if Super PACs and special interest groups are removed from the equation, this will still be the case. You will still have lobbying, and you will still be looking at the money to decide if a candidate's actions will match up with your values.


    Yeah Rand Paul suffered from some bad timing as I think Donald Trump took away a lot of his "non establishment" gusto. Even though the two candidates have very different political ideologies I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Rand's supporters go to Trump, although I think many of them will do what you said and just not vote at all.

    I think the big swings will happen when Kasich/Christie/Bush drop out and those supporters defect to Rubio.
     
  14. ...

    ... Active Member

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    I kind of want Trump to win just to see what happens.
     
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  15. Envrin

    Envrin Active Member

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    Trump and Sanders just killed it in NH, so looks like your fear may become a reality. Maybe Bloomberg will jump in at the last moment, and take over as an independent.

    US elections are always so exciting. :)
     
  16. KS1905

    KS1905 Active Member

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    To me both of your issues are more for Congressional/Senatorial candidates; campaign finance reform and budget stuff would need to be approved by the Congress before they reach the President's desk.

    The Congressional process is so messed up that this stuff will never make it to the President for him/her to sign or veto. They haven't passed a budget in 8 years, I can't imagine them passing a budget with any significant military spending in it any time soon.

    For me it is who would the President appoint as Supreme Court nominations, that is my top priority and how he/she can change the Country. This could have prevented Citizens United from affecting our Election System.

    I think Kasich & Clinton would appoint reasonable judges, I don't know what the fuck Trump would do. The Senate would vote every Sanders' nomination down just on their principals of him being a so-called Socialist.

    I'd like to see the gerrymandering system reined in; some of these states aren't representative of their populations whether it a Red or Blue State.
     
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  17. KS1905

    KS1905 Active Member

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    Can someone please explain why Iowa & NH start primary process? They are 2 of the smallest non-representative Whitest States in the Country.

    We probably wouldn't have ethanol subsides if Iowa didn't start primary season. That's one of the very few things that I agree with Cruz about. I find it interesting that he actually won Iowa; maybe in the feature Ethanol won't be untouchable.
     
  18. cardine

    cardine Administrator Staff Member

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    I'm still very confident that Bernie Sanders won't win - New Hampshire is all white people and Bernie Sanders doesn't poll well with minorities compared to Hillary Clinton. However last night was definitely not a good night for me. Trump won and no third party candidate broke away in any shape or form. A brokered convention for the Republicans is starting to look much more possible which would be unprecedented, although it likely means that Donald Trump would not win.

    Bloomberg running as a third party would be great in that situation, mostly because by then I will have given up on having a reasonable president and will just want to watch the mess that will follow two fringe nominees and a fairly mainstream third party candidate.

    Presidents still do have the ability to greatly influence policy and what types of bills end up on their desk. For instance a "grand bargain" where corporate taxes are lowered and loopholes are closed would never happen under Bernie Sanders because he would veto any reasonable compromise, while someone like Hillary would get something done because she understands that there will be give and take to get both sides to agree enough on an issue to get a bill passed.
     
  19. cardine

    cardine Administrator Staff Member

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    Welp after the Nevada caucus it is looking more and more likely like Trump could actually pull this off and win the Republican nomination. I still think Rubio has a real good shot but this is getting a little scary.
     
  20. Envrin

    Envrin Active Member

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    I'll hold my breath, and have confidence that the American public have more sense than to vote Trump in as President. More than likely, I'm assuming the independents will sway towards Hilary (lesser of two evils situation), and that will push the general election in her favor. At least she has an abundance of experience on the world stage.

    There's also the chance Trump markets himself properly, and actually does become the next President. I don't really have the words to express how scary and horrible that would be. :)