Ted Cruz wins Iowa Caucus

Discussion in 'Apex Lounge' started by cardine, Feb 1, 2016.

Share This Page

  1. Envrin

    Envrin Member

    Joined:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Messages:
    80
    Likes Received:
    65
    Should be an entertaining media circus come the general election. I'm sure loads of journalists are drooling in anticipation right now, just waiting to release various pieces of information they've dug up on Trump, but have been disallowed to publish until the general. Should be good.

    Hilary on the other hand has already had her name in the spotlight, and feet put to the coals, so I don't expect much of anything new due to her. Trump on the other hand should be interesting.
     
    cardine likes this.
  2. dzianis

    dzianis Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2015
    Messages:
    228
    Likes Received:
    365
    What's next?

    First this

    [​IMG]

    ...then this

    [​IMG]

    ...and here's a good read on the role of trolling, imageboards, memes and everything previously underground on the role of the general discourse, esp. in regard to this campaign:

    "Trump’s supporters have treated the campaign as one long trollfest. First Jeb, then Marco and finally Lyin’ Ted all stumbled and fell before the chaotic power of Trump’s troll army. Facing a hilarious combination of in-jokes, YouTube remixes, and Photoshop mashups, Trump’s opponents were subjected to non-stop ridicule from the cultural powerhouses of the web.


    The internet made them look stupid. The internet made them look weak. And what begins on /pol/ and leaks out into Twitter has a way of colouring media coverage and, ultimately, public perception, even among people who don’t frequent message boards."


    All that was actually pretty obvious for a while, at least to me as I watched it unfold, but some people don't even get it, still. None of the "dirt on Trump" matters, at all. All conventional media & journalists are one step behind no matter what they do.
     
    ... likes this.
  3. cardine

    cardine Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2015
    Messages:
    1,016
    Likes Received:
    984
    Yeah honestly I see no way Trump wins this. Of course I originally saw no way Trump would win the Republican nomination, so I'm willing to admit I may be potentially wrong again. But I do struggle to see how Trump can win when a huge part of the Republican party absolutely hates him.

    Something I do find interesting is that Hillary and Trump are the two most disliked presidential candidates ever tracked:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  4. dzianis

    dzianis Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2015
    Messages:
    228
    Likes Received:
    365
    That's just wishful thinking talking in you man :) The same kind that made you start this thread with the (very ironic now) current title :)

    Technically he can win this, so there's always a way. I think he will, but I also think his term isn't going to be that big of a deal for either his haters or zealous fans.
     
  5. Envrin

    Envrin Member

    Joined:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Messages:
    80
    Likes Received:
    65
    Time will tell. Could go either way, but I'd say there's a good chance Trump is going to get slaughtered so badly in the media during the general election, Clinton will win without problem. Clinton has the backing of the "establishment" after all, and many powerful people would much prefer to see her as President than Trump, so you can expect to see that in the media.

    And honestly, I'm fine with Clinton as President. For all intents and purposes, the US seems to be doing well right now. People can sit there and pick apart specific policies or laws, but if the US keeps the ship sailing steady without rocking the boat too much, I'll be a very happy man. And that's what Clinton will bring to the table -- steady as she goes, so no problem with her in the White House.

    Then again, who knows, Trump could pull an upset. There's a chance people will vote him in simply because they're pissed off and feel completely disenfranchised.
     
  6. cardine

    cardine Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2015
    Messages:
    1,016
    Likes Received:
    984
    I still see it as being very unlikely, simply because Trump has alienated a lot of Republicans. Clinton has her faults, but the Democratic Party and its voters will still unite under her, while there will be a lot of Republican defectors. In any event I'm holding out hope that this election will help get the Libertarian Party on the map - I think it is possible that in some states on the West Coast, Gary Johnson gets as high as 15-20% with a lot of #NeverTrump fiscal conservatives defecting over.
     
  7. KS1905

    KS1905 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2016
    Messages:
    55
    Likes Received:
    26
    People are not taking into consideration that Trump hasn't left any campaign infrastructure behind in the states after each states' primaries were concluded. The Trump campaign would pick up and go on to the next state(s). Now that he is the presumptive Republican nominee they will have to rebuild their entire campaigns in most of these states, which will take time and money. Besides just the get out the vote campaign, messaging, media coordination, there has been no campaign financing being done in these states either.

    They are talking about 1.5 to 2 billions dollars needed for each campaign, were is he going to get that kind of money in 2-3 months? Many of the regular republican donors/bundlers do not want to be a part of his campaign, he's going to have to find new donors.

    Usually the Presidential nominee would help raise money for down ballot candidates, Trump doesn't have the infrastructure in place to do this and some of the candidates are distancing themselves from Trump because his campaign has been so toxic.

    I don't know how the Republicans can fix this mess within a few months; some of them have already given up on the White House and are focusing on saving their majority in the House and holding on to control in the Senate.
     
    cardine likes this.
  8. Envrin

    Envrin Member

    Joined:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Messages:
    80
    Likes Received:
    65
  9. cardine

    cardine Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2015
    Messages:
    1,016
    Likes Received:
    984
    I'm not going to say that Trump has no chance because at this point anything can happen and Trump already proved he can way over exceed expectations, but I would still take those polls with a grain of salt. All of Clinton's dirty laundry has already been completely aired out, while Trump has yet to sustain an attack from a Democrat. Although Republicans have been criticizing Trump left and right they are not going to go after some of the big money shot attacks because they don't want to alienate their own base.

    Clinton will have no problem running smear ads about Trump outsourcing his work to cheap overseas labor, about Trump University being a "scam", Trump going bankrupt, or some of the other extreme positions he's momentarily taken (for instance arresting women for trying to get abortions, when even mainstream Republicans only want to go after the doctors).

    Republicans have avoided a lot of these attacks because they don't want to come across as being anti business, but Democrats will have no problem making them. A similar thing happened 4 years ago when Romney having to fire people at Bain Capital was hardly mentioned in the Republican Party but then became a huge focal point in the general election.

    I guess my point is, Clinton has spent the last 4 years getting attacked by Democrats and Republicans, so there isn't going to be any major new ammo, while Trump will become increasingly more popular once Democrats start attacking things that Trump's Republican opponents wouldn't touch.

    Not saying that Trump has no chance, but I wouldn't put too much stock in a poll like that right now.
     
  10. ...

    ... Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2016
    Messages:
    165
    Likes Received:
    73
    If Trump can withstand clowns like Rubio making fun of his penis (http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/02/rubio-suggests-trump-has-small-genitals.html) I think he can take whatever Hillary Clinton can dish and more. It's not like Hillary has almost been indicted recently or anything.
     
  11. Envrin

    Envrin Member

    Joined:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Messages:
    80
    Likes Received:
    65
    haha, this fucken guy just doesn't stop, does he? He's like the gift that keeps on giving.
     
    megodon likes this.
  12. cardine

    cardine Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2015
    Messages:
    1,016
    Likes Received:
    984
    I don't think he can win regardless, but he'll have zero chance of winning if he keeps on doing stuff like this. He is running this race as if only white men vote.
     
    KS1905 likes this.
  13. KS1905

    KS1905 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2016
    Messages:
    55
    Likes Received:
    26
    After today when he doubled down on his "Mexican" judge statement I think that he doesn't actually want to be President, he's sabotaging his campaign.

    He's a racist bigot, starting with the birth certicate bullshit, banning Muslims, calling Mexicans rapist and murders. He doesn't deserve to be President of the United States.
     
    Envrin likes this.
  14. KS1905

    KS1905 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2016
    Messages:
    55
    Likes Received:
    26
    It's not Hillary Clinton is dishing out, it's what Trump is doing to his own campaign, he is self destructing.

    There is an electoral college so national polls don't actually matter, the Republicans have a very difficult demographic road for winning the White House and Trump keeps making it worse.
     
  15. KS1905

    KS1905 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2016
    Messages:
    55
    Likes Received:
    26
    Trump may even cost the Republicans their control of the Senate. John McCain may lose his Senate seat in Arizonia because Hispanics will turn out to vote against Trump and most likely vote for the democratic senate nominee. There are other Republican Senators in similar positions as McCain.
     
  16. cardine

    cardine Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2015
    Messages:
    1,016
    Likes Received:
    984
    A while ago I jokingly said that Trump was a Clinton plant. That's probably not true, but if you look at all of Trump's actions it would make a lot of sense. He's going to single handedly win the election for Hillary (when someone like Kasich would have destroyed her) and possibly even cost the Republicans the house. Plus he talked to Bill Clinton just before announcing his run for the Republican nomination, and Bill Clinton encouraged him to run.
     
  17. KS1905

    KS1905 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2016
    Messages:
    55
    Likes Received:
    26
  18. KS1905

    KS1905 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2016
    Messages:
    55
    Likes Received:
    26
  19. cardine

    cardine Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2015
    Messages:
    1,016
    Likes Received:
    984
    It looks like 538 finally has their election forecast up. This is especially important as 538 predicted every single state in 2012 completely correct. These odds will evolve and change over time, but 538 is probably the golden standard for election models as they predicted every state correctly in the last election. There is obviously plenty of time for things to change before the election in November, but so far it doesn't look pretty for Trump.

    upload_2016-6-29_21-58-4.png

    It already has him behind in Arizona, and shows him barely ahead in states like Missouri, and doesn't show him ahead in a single state that Obama won. It's far from over for Trump, but regardless of what national polls say for Trump (and they don't say good things) the polls in the various swing states look even worse for him right now.
     
  20. Envrin

    Envrin Member

    Joined:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Messages:
    80
    Likes Received:
    65
    Yeah, won't surprise me in the slightest if it's a Democrat White House, Senate and Congress come Jan 2017. I think you're somewhat right -- if Trump wasn't a straight-up plant, the Clintons (and Obama I'm sure) knew exactly what Trump would do to the Republican party, and egged him on to run for President.

    Now the scary thing is, what happens after this? If the US becoming a one-party state? The Republicans sure as hell don't have any credibility any more, and they only have themselves to blame.

    Obama hasn't even started campaigning for Clinton yet, and his popularity is very high for an outgoing President. Plus the Clinton campaign has far more funding than Trump, and although they've started the advertising, it's nothing compared to what's to come.